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A guide to
developing prospects in High Heat Baseball
(By Bruce Muench)
Disclaimer: In no way do I
claim to be an expert or have all the answers. The tips and techniques
stated here were developed through much practice, trial &
error, & through running test sims and watching closely how
prospects react to different situations & developmental techniques.
Lets start with a basic
concept:
Like riding a bike for the
first time, if you think you can just jump on and go, then enter
a BMX rally 3 days later, think again. You need to develop and
perfect your skills first, no matter how much natural talent you
have. The same applies for baseball players in High Heat. Too
often, players are rushed through the minors, only to flop
or never live up to their full potential at the ML level. Players
need time to develop their skills. You cannot rush them, nor can
you leave them too long in the minors. Either can have a devastating
effect on their ability.
Lets look at age first:
Rookies, brand-new players
in A-Ball that are generated by the game range in age from 18
21 with the average being 19. The average player reaches
his prime around the age of 27. His best years in the majors will
be from the ages of 26 32. So we want our prospect coming
up to the bigs around age 24 or 25. This way hell get a
year or 2 of experience at ML level just before he reaches his
prime. Having that experience when he hits his prime will be very
beneficial.
Now lets look at development
time:
To properly develop a player
he should have no less than 4 years in the minors, and no more
than 6. One year at rookie ball, 2 at AA, and 2 at AAA are the
norm.
Now lets take 5 years as the
average amount of time in the minors, and 19 as the average age
a rookie is when he starts out. This will put him in the majors
at 24, which is an ideal age to hit the bigs. Take a 21 year old
rookie with the average development time, and hes already
26 when he gets to the ML level. This is not bad, but not as good
as getting him there at 24. An 18 year old rookie hits the bigs
at 23, which is not bad either.
Therefore, you can see the
development stage shouldnt change much from the 5 years
in the minors rule. Although with the 21 year old rookie, it is
ok to start him at A ball, and then move him to AA half way through
his first season. Hell then get to AAA at 23, and the majors
at 25, rather than 26. This brings him closer to the ideal age
of 24. The 18 year old on the other hand, is better off spending
his first year entirely at A-Ball. Hell hit the majors at
23 likely, but could get there at 24 if you decide to give him
an extra year at AAA. This is not bad either, remember, 4
6 years in the minors.
Now, lets take a 19-year-old
rookie 1B. You like this guy because his numbers indicate hell
hit .310 and belt about 40 homers a season. Hes brand new
in your system with no past history. This is where the first temptation
to rush the guy kicks in. A lot people think to themself, its
ok to skip rookie ball and start him at AA, it wont hurt
his development. This is the WRONG way to think. It will
hurt his development. The first year is very important. He develops
his confidence and basic game fundamentals, so if you start him
at a higher level, and he doesnt hit well against the tougher
pitchers, or makes a lot of fielding errors, then he wont
build confidence. He needs, at the very least a half season at
A-Ball. Skip this time, and you take a chance on him not reaching
full potential.
OK, so we leave the guy at
rookie ball for the full season. Next season, we move him up to
AA. He spends 2 years there, then gets bumped to AAA. You look
at his history after each year and see how hes improving
at the plate and in the field. This guy is right on track you
figure, hes now been in your minors for 4 years and is on
his last season at AAA. Here comes the temptation again to bring
him up a year early, because hes having a great 2nd season
at AAA. Hes hitting .350 with 30 homers by the all-star
break. You think to yourself, I have to bring him up, hes
being held back at AAA. This is WRONG thinking again. That
last year is critical, it gives a final boost to his confidence,
and, like real baseball, he goes to spring training the next year
pumped, knowing he has a very good shot at making the big club.
Now, having done all this,
there is one thing you can do in his final year at AAA that wont
hurt him if you are careful. Lets say the big league club
is out of the pennant race and fluttering around .500. Its
Aug 30th and youre already planning for next year, thinking
about the draft, etc etc. Bring the kid up for 1 or 2 sims, give
him a taste of the bigs. Dont put him in as a starter, just
bring him up and let him come off the bench for the first sim,
then insert him in the line-up for the second sim. Then bring
him back down to AAA for the remainder of the season. This little
bit of experience doesnt hurt, and can help. It also doesnt
give him enough time to count towards FA eligibility, so you lost
nothing there. Just dont keep him up any longer than 3 sims.
Remember, your big league club is out of the race, hes not
going to make the difference now, but if you develop him properly,
hes going to make a big difference in the years to come.
OK, that guy gets to the majors
at age 24, perfect.
Now, what about the 21 year
old rookie? Well, the scenario doesnt change very much.
The difference here is, in his first year, around mid season,
just after the all-star break, you move him up to AA. Hes
got enough time at rookie ball to build some confidence, so moving
him up wont be detrimental. Now he finishes his first season
with a half season experience at AA. Hes 22 when he starts
his second season at AA. 23 when he starts AAA, and 25 when he
moves to the big club. Still a good age, will still have some
experience under his belt when he reaches his prime.
Development & Experience,
these are 2 key requirements. I cant stress that enough.
Rush a guy and ruin him, leave him down too long and he becomes
stagnate.
Now, Ive seen many cases,
and tried it in my tests, bringing a guy with 40 HR potential
up early, say after hes had 2 years in the minors, and seen
him hit 40 home runs for a season or 2. But then when he should
be hitting his prime, hes burnt out because he was brought
up at 21. Ive seen owners take a guy with 40 hr potential
and start him at AAA, or move him there after 1 month at rookie
ball. I have seen the odd case where it didnt effect the
guy, but that was very rare. I recommend you dont take the
chance. Too many owners are too impatient; they want that 40 hr
guy or that 25 game winner with 300 strike out potential on their
big league team right away. Too many guys want to win now, and
at any cost.
My view on that is, its
wrong for the game, and it definitely hurts a league. Why you
ask? Well, right now, when we start out we have the Griffeys,
& A-Rods, & Randys, & Pedros. Eventually,
those guys are going to get old and retire. We need guys with
the same potential coming along to replace them, so a league always
has some super stars. I like a league with Griffeys and
Pedros, I enjoy watching them set records. It is one of
the things that make a league exciting. If we rush the next generation
of super stars and they burn out when they should be hitting their
prime, eventually we dont have any super stars in our league
anymore. Remember, in a league, over the course of a real year,
you go through about 5 seasons game time. If Pedro is 30 when
you start your league, hes 35 and starting to decline after
one real year. When Pedro starts to decline, I certainly hope
the next Pedro is just starting to reach his prime. Then there
is a smooth transition and your league has another super-star.
This is a wonderful game, and its fun to watch the Pedros
and A-Rods, even when theyre not on your team. These
guys make the game great & exciting, we need them to keep
coming along.
Here are some other things
you can consider doing.
With an older rookie, its
possible to give him less time at the lower echelons of your farm
system. I dont recommend this be done too often, but for
the older guy, its OK. 1 full year at A-Ball, 1 full year
at AA, and 2 at AAA. This puts a 21 year old rookie in the majors
at 25. I said earlier a player should reach the majors around
24 or 25 yrs old, with 24 being ideal. 23 & 26 are acceptable,
but are the extremes. If you plan carefully, you can get any player
to the ML level at 24 or 25 and still give them proper development
time in your minor league system.
Now here is something I strongly
recommend you do. Teach a player at least one more position, and
2 if you have the full 5 years to work with. Take a guy who is
a natural 2B, play him there his first year. In his second year,
play him at SS. Let him be your starting SS for 2 seasons. What
do I do with my regular SS you ask? Play him at second. Both players
develop skills at 2 positions. In the 3rd and 4th years of development,
alternate them, one year at natural position, one year at the
new position. When they get to the ML club, you now have a player
that can play an even bigger role for you. The list of interchangeable
positions that I use goes like this.
1B 3B LF
2B SS
3B 1B C
SS 2B
C 3B RF
Outfield Outfield (Should spend a year at each outfield
position) However, a slow guy, a guy with little outfield range,
or a guy with a wet noodle for an arm is only useful in LF. Your
CF and RF need speed and range, plus a strong arm.
These are basic development
guides to the positions a player should be able to learn. You
can try your own as well. Remember, the more talents and abilities
a player has, the more valuable he is to your big league club.
Dont hesitate to develop
your bench players either, they play a very important role on
your club. If I have an outfielder that can only hit around .250,
but has very good hands and great speed, Ill teach him every
outfield position and 1B while hes in the minors. When he
gets to the big leagues he wont impress anybody with his
hitting, but he will be invaluable off the bench as a pinch-runner
or defensive substitution in close games. Many owners look at
a guys numbers and make their decision then and there if a guy
is good or not. Something I always do is look at players
strengths & weaknesses, then determine if he can fill a role
on my team.
To me, a baseball team is
made up of role players. A player that hits .265 and can play
any outfield position, plus has speed and good hands, is just
as valuable to me as my 40 hr, .315 BA, clean-up hitter. They
both play an important role on my team. I honestly dont
believe any team can win a world series with just 9 solid starters
and a bunch of tag alongs. If you dont have those bench
players developed properly, you wont win.
Well, that covers the basics
of developing your players properly, I hope that this guide helps
you in some small way, or that some of my tips are helpful to
you in developing your own system. Should you have any questions
or suggestions, please feel free to pass them along.
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